Kemampuan Panel ARDL Memprediksi Ketahanan Fundamental Ekonomi Negara Muslim Emerging Market

Rusiadi Rusiadi

Abstract


Tujuan penelitian membahas masalah penurunan ketahanan fundamental ekonomi negara Muslim Emerging Matket, baik jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang. Analisis data memakai Panel ARDL. Hasil penelitian menyimpulkan secara panel ternyata jumlah uang beredar menjadi leading indicator untuk pengendalian negara Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Pakistan dan UEA, Arab Saudi, Turkey. Posisinya stabil dalam short run dan long run. Leading indicator utama efektivitas variabel dalam pengendalian ketahanan fundamental ekonomi negara emerging market Muslim yaitu investasi dilihat dari stabilitas short run dan long run, dimana jumlah uang beredar signifikan mengendalikan ketahanan fundamental ekonomi.

Keywords


Panel ARDL, Ketahanan Fundamental Ekonomi, kurs, PDB.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.30596/ekonomikawan.v19i1.3243