From Passion Fruit to Dragon Fruit: An Analysis of Agricultural Commodity Dynamics in Karo Regency Based on an Aggregate Approach
Abstract
This study examines the contrasting production trends of passion fruit and dragon fruit in Karo Regency, identifies plausible explanations, assesses agribusiness implications, and formulates policy directions. Secondary production data from Karo Regency in Figures 2024 and 2025 and regional planning documents were combined with Manual Thematic Synthesis of purposively selected scholarly literature. Quantitative analysis covered annual commodity production, year-on-year production growth, cumulative production change, the production index, compound annual growth rate, the dragon-fruit-to-passion-fruit production ratio, commodity production shares, and production ranks. The synthesis used an Excel extraction matrix, manual coding, theme development, and comparison with regional statistics. Dragon fruit production increased from 6,012 quintals in 2021 to 93,930.63 quintals in 2024, with a production index of 1,562.39 and compound annual growth of approximately 150 percent. It ranked fourth in recorded perennial fruit and vegetable production in 2024, with a 3.55 percent share. Administrative records indicate declining passion fruit production, although recorded zeros do not establish the disappearance of cultivation. The literature suggests income prospects, production constraints, market access, technology, and social learning as plausible explanations. Agribusiness implications concern passion fruit supply and processing continuity and dragon fruit marketing, postharvest, and investment risks. Policy should combine passion fruit revitalization with market-oriented dragon fruit development. These aggregate and literature-based findings do not establish direct crop substitution or causal household income effects.
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.30596/jasc.v10i2.32183
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