Distorsi Harga di Sektor Pertanian: Studi Empiris Menggunakan VECM

Rizky Mulia Rahman : Universitas Negeri Semarang , Ummu Wahidatul Laily : Universitas Negeri Semarang
Submitted: 03-07-2025 || Accepted: 02-07-2026 || Published: 02-07-2026

Abstract


This study aims to analyze the general equilibrium in the food commodity price system and farmers' welfare in Indonesia using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. The urgency of this research lies in the persistent price volatility and the paradox of stagnant farmer welfare despite rising commodity prices. The study focuses on short-term and long-term relationships between the price of medium-quality rice (MQP) as the endogenous variable and other variables including premium-quality rice, poor-quality rice, corn, potatoes, broiler chicken, and the Farmer’s Terms of Trade (NTP). Monthly data from January 2021 to December 2023 were obtained from BPS. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test results indicate that most variables are I(1), fulfilling the requirements for the Johansen cointegration test and VECM estimation. The results reveal cointegration among variables, indicating a general equilibrium relationship within the commodity system. Several variables, such as chicken and corn prices, significantly influence medium rice prices in both the short and long run. These findings highlight the existence of price distortion and strong market interdependence within Indonesia's agricultural system. Therefore, price policies and market interventions must account for cross-commodity linkages to maintain market stability and improve farmer welfare.

Keywords


General Equilibrium, Food Prices, VECM, Farmer's Exchange Rate, Price Distortion

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.30596/ekonomikawan.v26i1.25623

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