Analisis Determinan Kemiskinan Kabupaten di Pulau Sumatera
Abstract
Despite being the second-largest contributor to Indonesia's national GDP, district-level poverty in Sumatra Island remains persistent, averaging 3–5 percentage points higher than urban areas, indicating that economic growth does not automatically reduce poverty at the district level. This study analyzes the determinants of district-level poverty in Sumatra Island during 2015–2025 using panel data from 120 districts across 10 provinces, estimated through the Fixed Effect Model (FEM). Four variables were examined: education, agricultural workers, food expenditure, and access to clean drinking water. Results show that education and clean water access significantly reduce poverty, while a high share of agricultural workers worsens it. Food expenditure is insignificant. The model demonstrates strong explanatory power (Adjusted R²=0.944). Policy implications emphasize expanding secondary education, diversifying employment beyond agriculture, and prioritizing clean water infrastructure in high-poverty districts.
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.30596/ekonomikawan.v26i1.30191