Dampak Perang Dagang Amerika-Tiongkok Terhadap Integrasi Pasar Modal Global

Didik Gunawan, Yenni Arfah

Abstract


Perang dagang antara Amerika dan Tiongkok telah meningkatkan risiko bisnis global sehingga menimbulkan kekhawatiran negara-negara di dunia tentang masa depan perekonomian. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk merekonstruksi pola integrasi pasar modal global setelah terjadinya perang dagang, serta untuk mengetahui bagaimana perubahan hegemoni Amerika dan Tiongkok pasca perang dagang terhadap integrasi pasar modal global. Alat analisis yang digunakan adalah metode Vector Autoregressive untuk data sebelum dan setelah terjadinya perang dagang. Hasil uji kausalitas Granger membuktikan bahwa perang dagang antara Amerika dan Tiongkok menyebabkan terjadinya penurunan dominasi Amerika Serikat di Asia, terutama pada perekonomian Indonesia dan Singapura, selanjutnya uji IRF memperkuat hasil tersebut, ternyata setelah terjadinya perang dagang, guncangan pada perekonomian Tiongkok yang memberikan dampak lebih lama pada negara-negara mitra dagangnya (Jepang, Indonesia, dan Singapura) dibandingkan Amerika

Keywords


Perang Dagang, VAR, Pasar Modal, Integrasi

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References


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.30596/snk.v1i1.3584

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