Model Mediasi Makroekonomi: Peran Kredit Masyarakat terhadap Jumlah Uang Beredar di Indonesia
Abstract
Tujuan Penelitian: Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji pengaruh BI Rate, Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB), inflasi, dan realisasi investasi terhadap jumlah uang beredar (M1) di Indonesia, dengan kredit masyarakat sebagai variabel mediasi dalam model hubungan makroekonomi.
Metode Penelitian: Metode yang digunakan adalah pendekatan kuantitatif dengan teknik Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) versi 4.0. Data yang dianalisis berupa time series triwulanan periode 2015–2023, dengan total 36 observasi.
Originalitas/Novelty: Kebaruan dari penelitian ini terletak pada penggunaan kredit masyarakat sebagai variabel mediasi dalam model struktural hubungan antara indikator makroekonomi dan jumlah uang beredar di Indonesia. Penelitian ini juga mengintegrasikan pengujian pengaruh langsung dan tidak langsung secara simultan.
Hasil Penelitian: Kredit masyarakat terbukti berpengaruh langsung dan signifikan terhadap jumlah uang beredar. PDRB dan realisasi investasi tidak berpengaruh langsung, namun menunjukkan pengaruh tidak langsung yang signifikan melalui kredit. BI Rate hanya berpengaruh langsung, inflasi tidak signifikan.
Implikasi: Hasil penelitian menekankan pentingnya penguatan sistem kredit yang responsif dan inklusif agar transmisi kebijakan moneter dapat efektif dalam mendorong likuiditas dan mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional.
Research Objective: This study aims to examine the influence of the BI Rate, Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), inflation, and investment realization on the money supply (M1) in Indonesia, with household credit as a mediating variable within the macroeconomic relationship model.
Research Method: The method used is a quantitative approach employing Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) version 4.0. The data analyzed consists of quarterly time series from 2015 to 2023, totaling 36 observations.
Originality/Novelty: The novelty of this research lies in the use of household credit as a mediating variable in the structural model linking macroeconomic indicators to the money supply in Indonesia. This study also integrates simultaneous testing of both direct and InDirect Effects.
Research Findings: Household credit has a direct and significant effect on the money supply. GRDP and investment realization do not have a Direct Effect but show significant InDirect Effects through credit. The BI Rate has a Direct Effect only, while inflation is found to be statistically insignificant.
Implications: The findings highlight the importance of strengthening a responsive and inclusive credit system to ensure that monetary policy transmission is effective in enhancing liquidity and supporting national economic growth.
Keywords
Full Text:
PDFReferences
Abina, A. P., & Obi, E. (2020). Sectorial Output Growth and Commercial Bank Credit Nexus in Nigeria. Quantitative Economics and Management Studies, 1(1), 88–102. https://doi.org/10.35877/454RI.qems177
Agustin Setyaningrum, T., & Sucipto, A. (2021). Apakah jumlah uang beredar memoderasi bank indonesia rate, transaksi non tunai, nilai tukar dan inflasi? In AKUNTABEL (Vol. 18, Issue 4). http://journal.feb.unmul.ac.id/index.php/AKUNTABEL
Allen, F., & Santomero, A. M. (1997). The theory of financial intermediation. Journal of Banking & Finance, 21(11), 1461–1485. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(97)00032-0
Amelia, A. (2023). Analisis Dampak Inflasi dan Investasi Syariah Pada Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia. SINOMIKA Journal: Publikasi Ilmiah Bidang Ekonomi Dan Akuntansi, 2(1), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.54443/sinomika.v2i1.905
An, P. T. H., & Dung, N. T. Q. (2019). TRANSFER MONEY POLICY THROUGH CREDIT CHANNELS IN VIETNAM. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 9(6), 33–39. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.8752
Anakpo, G., Xhate, Z., & Mishi, S. (2023). The Policies, Practices, and Challenges of Digital Financial Inclusion for Sustainable Development: The Case of the Developing Economy. FinTech, 2(2), 327–343. https://doi.org/10.3390/fintech2020019
Aruoba, S. B., & Drechsel, T. (2024). The long and variable lags of monetary policy: Evidence from disaggregated price indices. Journal of Monetary Economics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103635
Asmarani, T. E., & Ningsih, E. A. (2023). Domestic Credit and Stock Market Impact on Economic Growth: A New Evidence in Five ASEAN Countries. The Winners, 23(2), 95–102. https://doi.org/10.21512/tw.v23i2.7066
Astuti, R. D., Ilmu, J., Feb, E., Veteran, U. ", Sri, Y., Hastuti, R. B., & Yogyakarta, ". (2020). TRANSMISI KEBIJAKAN MONETER DI INDONESIA. 10(1). http://jurnal.untirta.ac.id/index.php/Ekonomi-Qu
Ayu Az Zahra, D., & Ajija, S. R. (2023). The Effect of Financial Inclusion on Inclusive Economic Growth in Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Terapan, 8(1), 55–67. https://doi.org/10.20473/jiet.v8i1.45426
Bernanke, B., Gertler, M., & Gilchrist, S. (1996). The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 78(1), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.2307/2109844
Cheung, G. W., Cooper-Thomas, H. D., Lau, R. S., & Wang, L. C. (2024). Reporting reliability, convergent and discriminant validity with structural equation modeling: A review and best-practice recommendations. Asia Pacific Journal of Management, 41(2), 745–783. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10490-023-09871-y
Chowdhury, A., Ratna, T. S., Akhter, T., & Hossain, S. F. A. (2024). Rise of inflation and formation of interest rate on loans in industrial sector: A VECM approach to assess the impact on total industrial production from evidence of Bangladesh. Heliyon, 10(3). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e24976
Dash, G., & Paul, J. (2021). CB-SEM vs PLS-SEM methods for research in social sciences and technology forecasting. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 173, 121092. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121092
Dauda, P. (2019). Pengaruh Inflasi Dan Jumlah Uang Beredar Terhadap Penentuan Suku Bunga Sertifikat Bank Indonesia (SBI). Jurnal Manajemen Perbankan Keuangan Nitro, 2(2), 78–87. https://doi.org/10.56858/jmpkn.v2i2.20
Dawood, T. C. (2018). Monetary Policy, Foreign Interest Rate impact on Indonesian Bank Credit. JEJAK, 11(2), 338–355. https://doi.org/10.15294/jejak.v11i2.16056
Demir, E., & Danisman, G. O. (2021). The impact of economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks on bank credit. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 57, 101444. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2021.101444
Diwira Registanaranti Yastika, R., Rio Rita, M., & Madea Sakti, I. (2020). The Moderating Role of Capital Adequacy in the Effect of Liquidity on the Profitability of Islamic Banking. 3(2), 115–125.
Do, H. T. K., Nguyen, N. T. M., & Le, T. H. (2017). Effects of the Credit Boom on the Soundness of Vietnamese Commercial Banks. International Journal of Financial Research, 8(3), 57. https://doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v8n3p57
Firdausi, I. (2021). Analysis on Fundamental of Macroeconomy Factors on Banking Performance and its Implications to Third Party Funds: A Case Study of Indonesia. International Journal of Advances in Scientific Research and Engineering, 07(08), 17–26. https://doi.org/10.31695/ijasre.2021.34054
García Matres, J. de O., & Viet Le, T. (2021). The Impact of Money Supply on the Economy: A Panel Study on Selected Countries. Journal of Economic Science Research, 4(4). https://doi.org/10.30564/jesr.v4i4.3782
Graves, B., & Merkle, E. C. (2022). A note on identification constraints and information criteria in Bayesian latent variable models. Behavior Research Methods, 54(2), 795–804. https://doi.org/10.3758/s13428-021-01649-8
Gust, C., Kim, K., & Ruprecht, R. (2023). The Effects of CBDC on the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet. Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 2023–068, 1–38. https://doi.org/10.17016/feds.2023.068
Herdiani, E. T. (2017). Modifikasi Penaksir Robust dalam Pelabelan Outlier Multivariat (Vol. 14, Issue 1).
Ihsan Khairi, M., & Susanti, D. (2021). Study on Structural Equation Modeling for Analyzing Data. International Journal of Ethno-Sciences and Education Research, 1(3), 2021.
Indrawati, Y., Wardhono, A., Gema Qori, C., & Abd Nasir, M. (2020a. The Impact of E-Money Diffusion on the Monetary Policy Effectiveness: Evidence from Indonesia.
Iyke, B. N., Sharma, S. S., & Gunadi, I. (2021). Covid-19, policy responses, and industrial productivity around the globe. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter Dan Perbankan, 24(3), 365–382. https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v24i3.1691
Korchagina, I., & Korchagin, R. (2019). Modeling regional economic growth with the formation of innovative ecosystems of technological entrepreneurship as a factor of sustainable development. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 395(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/395/1/012101
Korliras, P. G. (1974). A MODEL OF MONEY, CREDIT, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH. Kyklos, 27(4), 757–776. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6435.1974.tb01919.x
Lee, K. S., & Werner, R. A. (2023). Are lower interest rates really associated with higher growth? New empirical evidence on the interest rate thesis from 19 countries. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 28(4), 3960–3975. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2630
Lestari, R. M., Febriani, R. E., Putri, N. T., Pembangunan, J. E., Ekonomi, F., & Bisnis, D. (2021). PENGARUH KREDIT PERBANKAN TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI PROVINSI DI SUMATERA. CONVERGENCE : THE JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, 3(2), 179–195
Mala, C. M. F., Sofyan, J. F., Adhikara, M. F. A., & Jumono, S. (2021). THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BANKING INTERMEDIATION AND REAL ECONOMIC GROWTH (A CASE STUDY OF INDONESIA FOR THE PERIOD 2007–2019). Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 56(6), 551–563. https://doi.org/10.35741/issn.0258-2724.56.6.48
Mandeij, D., Rumate, V. A., & Rompas, W. F. I. (2019). The influence of exchange rate, international interest rate and inflation rate on lending and deposit rate of indonesia banking sector through reference policy rate as intervening variable. International Journal of Engineering and Advanced Technology, 8(5C), 204–213. https://doi.org/10.35940/ijeat.E1030.0585C19
Maran, M. (2021). Impact of Interest Loan, Growth of Regional Gross Domestic Product, Inflation and Economic Growth on Loans at Credit Union in West Kalimantan, Indonesia. Journal of Asian Multicultural Research for Economy and Management Study, 2(3), 37–47. https://doi.org/10.47616/jamrems.v2i3.119
Minangsari, F. (2020). Inflation Influence on Household Consumption in South Sumatra.
Mubin, M. K., & Sugara, A. (2020). The impact of macroeconomic variables on credit risk: Evidence from Indonesian business sector level data. International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147- 4478), 9(5), 235–244. https://doi.org/10.20525/ijrbs.v9i5.804
Nanda Fitria, C., Silvia, V., & Seftarita, C. (2024). Does Bank Credit Fluctuation Affect Inflation? Evidence from Indonesia. International Journal of Finance, Economics and Business, 3(2), 107–119. https://doi.org/10.56225/ijfeb.v3i2.329
Naro, V. M. S., Purnami, A. A. S., & Wulandari, I. G. A. A. (2021). Pengaruh Dana Pihak Ketiga, BI Rate dan Inflasi Terhadap Penyaluran Kredit Pada PT. Bank Mandiri, Periode 2014(I) -2018(IV). Warmadewa Economic Development Journal (WEDJ), 4(1), 28–38. https://doi.org/10.22225/wedj.4.1.3148.28-38
Natalie Burr. (2024). About a rate of (general) interest: how monetary policy transmits How monetary policy affects the economy.
Nugroho, M. R., & Kurnia, A. S. (2021). The Effectiveness of Banking Countercyclical Policies in the Development of Priority Economic Sectors in Indonesia. Global Review of Islamic Economics and Business, 9(1), 001. https://doi.org/10.14421/grieb.2021.091-01
Nurinda, M. S. (2022). Which Sector-Based Bank Lending Facilities can Contribute to Long-Term Economic Growth? : Indonesian Study. Journal of Economics, Finance And Management Studies, 05(04). https://doi.org/10.47191/jefms/v5-i4-16
Oyerinde, A. A. (2019). An Assessment of the Nexus Between Government Expenditure and Inflation in Nigeria. Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, 19(2), 102–116. https://doi.org/10.2478/foli-2019-0016
Patrick Lie, J., & Rivai, A. (2022). DETERMINAN SUKU BUNGA PASAR UANG ANTAR BANK TAHUN 1990-2019. SIBATIK JOURNAL: Jurnal Ilmiah Bidang Sosial, Ekonomi, Budaya, Teknologi, Dan Pendidikan, 1(8), 1291–1300. https://doi.org/10.54443/sibatik.v1i8.162
Peretto, P. F. (2017). Robust Endogenous Growth. http://public.econ.duke.edu/~peretto/.
Pesigan, I. J. A., & Cheung, S. F. (2020). SEM-Based Methods to Form Confidence Intervals for Indirect Effect: Still Applicable Given Nonnormality, Under Certain Conditions. Frontiers in Psychology, 11. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2020.571928
Purnama, D. I. (2021). Comparison of Zero Inflated Poisson (ZIP) Regression, Zero Inflated Negative Binomial Regression (ZINB) and Binomial Negative Hurdle Regression (HNB) to Model Daily Cigarette Consumption Data for Adult Population in Indonesia. Jurnal Matematika, Statistika Dan Komputasi, 17(3), 357–369. https://doi.org/10.20956/j.v17i3.12278
Putra, H. S., Huljannah, M., Anis, A., & Azhar, Z. (2021). Debit and Credit Cards: Money Velocity Risks. Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan, 22(2), 228–243. https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v22i2.11208
Qoirun, M., Arifin, N., & Oktavilia, S. (2020). Economics Development Analysis Journal Analysis The Use of Electronic Money in Indonesia Article Info. Economics Development Analysis Journal, 9(4). http://journal.unnes.ac.id/sju/index.php/edaj
Riyadi, A., Santosa, P. B., Purwaningsih, Y., & Wardhono, A. (2019). Analysis of Islamic teaching on economic growth: The natural economic growth concept. Humanities and Social Sciences Reviews, 7(3), 548–554. https://doi.org/10.18510/hssr.2019.7381
Shmueli, G., Sarstedt, M., Hair, J. F., Cheah, J.-H., Ting, H., Vaithilingam, S., & Ringle, C. M. (2019). Predictive model assessment in PLS-SEM: guidelines for using PLSpredict. European Journal of Marketing, 53(11), 2322–2347. https://doi.org/10.1108/EJM-02-2019-0189
Suci Frisnoiry, Nurul Masita, Gustia Louisa Nainggolan, & Nia Fadilla. (2024). Analisis Korelasi Antara Inflasi dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Sumatera Utara. E-Bisnis : Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 17(1), 226–234. https://doi.org/10.51903/e-bisnis.v17i1.1872
Suroso, A. I., Bahri, S., Achsani, N. A., Suhendi, & Sari, L. K. (2025). Money Demand in Indonesia and Its Forecasting to 2033. Economies, 13(4). https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040098
Suryo Laras dan Achmad Tjahjono Prodi Akuntansi STIE Widya Wiwaha Yogyakarta, A. (2021). Adi Suryo Laras Achmad Tjahjono ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR FUNDAMENTAL YANG BERPENGARUH TERHADAP LIKUIDITAS SAHAM PADA PERUSAHAAN PERBANKAN YANG BERADA PADA INDEKS INFOBANK 15 DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA PERIODE 2015-2018. In Jurnal Riset Akuntansi dan Bisnis Indonesia STIE Wiya Wiwaha (Vol. 1, Issue 2). https://www.idx.co.id/data-pasar/data-saham/daftar-saham/
Swan, T. W. (1956). ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION. The Economic Record, 32(2), 334–361. https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:32:y:1956:i:2:p:334-361
Tschach, I. (2024). The Impact of Inflation on Long-Term Housing Loans
Wang, C., Ma, X., Jin, X., Zeng, H., & Wang, Z. (2024). HMAE: a high-fidelity multi-agent simulator for economic phenomenon emergence. Frontiers in Physics, 12. https://doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2024.1451423
Wardhani, R. S. (2020). Factors That Affect Profitability at the Conventional Bank of Indonesia. Jurnal Akuntansi, 24(2), 297. https://doi.org/10.24912/ja.v24i2.698
Widada, A. W., Mulyo, J. H., & Nasir, M. A. (2020). Role Of Agricultural Sector In Facing Economic Disparity In The Special Province Of Yogyakarta. Jurnal Agribest, 4(1), 1. https://doi.org/10.32528/agribest.v4i1.2966
Yuliadi, I. (2020). An analysis of money supply in Indonesia: Vector Autoregressive (VAR) approach. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(7), 241–249. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2020.vol7.no7.241
Zhang, S., & Colvin, K. (2024). Comparison of different reliability estimation methods for single-item assessment: a simulation study. Frontiers in Psychology, 15. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2024.1482016
DOI: https://doi.org/10.30596/jakk.v8i1.24736
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
Jurnal Akuntansi dan Keuangan Kontemporer (JAKK) is abstracting & indexing in the following databases:
