Analisis Pengaruh BI Rate dan Inflasi Terhadap Non-Performing Loan (NPL) pada Bank Umum di Indonesia
Abstract
Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) are an important indicator of banking soundness that reflect credit quality and financial system stability. Changes in macroeconomic conditions, particularly inflation and Bank Indonesia's benchmark interest rate (BI Rate), may affect borrowers' ability to meet their credit obligations and consequently influence NPL levels. This study aims to analyze the effect of the BI Rate and inflation on NPLs in commercial banks in Indonesia. A quantitative approach was employed using 20 monthly time-series observations from January 2024 to August 2025. The data were obtained from official publications of Bank Indonesia, the Financial Services Authority, and Statistics Indonesia. Data analysis was conducted using multiple linear regression with SPSS, including classical assumption tests, t-tests, F-tests, and the coefficient of determination (R²). The results indicate that the BI Rate has a negative and significant effect on NPLs, with a significance value of 0.002 (<0.05). Meanwhile, inflation does not have a significant effect on NPLs, with a significance value of 0.260 (>0.05). Simultaneously, the BI Rate and inflation significantly affect NPLs, with a significance value of 0.006 (<0.05), explaining 45.2% of the variation in NPLs. These findings suggest that monetary policy and macroeconomic conditions play an important role in maintaining credit quality and banking stability in Indonesia.
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.30596/ekonomikawan.v26i1.30960